The 2026 MBA CREF conference delivered a unified message: we are in a uniquely active, competitive, and transitional phase for U.S. commercial real estate finance. Drawing on insights from panelists spanning private credit, agency lending, and investment sales leadership, here are the high-level trends that should be on every market participant’s radar.
Unprecedented Liquidity is Fueling Competition
Liquidity is surging from all corners: GSEs, banks, life companies, debt funds, and even REITs are ramping up lending activity. CRE mortgage originations climbed to $633 billion in 2025—an increase of 27%—with MBA projecting an even more robust $805 billion for 2026. This “wall of capital” is compressing spreads and providing borrowers more options, while making speed and efficiency paramount for lenders and investors alike.
The Maturity Wall Translates into Opportunity
Nearly $1 trillion in CRE loan maturities must be addressed over 2025 and 2026. This isn’t just a refinancing story—it’s also about changing ownership, recapitalization, and market repricing. Forced sales and workouts are slowly increasing as “extend and pretend” fades. While no ‘big shoe’ is expected to drop, this process is gradually resetting valuations, offering openings for well-capitalized, operationally strong buyers.
A Darwinian Market: Winners Have Focus and Flexibility
The environment is intensely competitive, but highly selective:
- Multifamily, industrial, and alternative property types (seniors housing, manufactured housing, workforce housing) are drawing outsized attention and capital.
- Success is going to sponsors and lenders who can move quickly, operate efficiently, and structure deals creatively—especially with banks, agencies, and securitization markets all innovating to deliver more tailored, flexible solutions.
Agencies are Leaning In—But It’s a Battle for Every Basis Point
Agency lending is strong, but not automatic. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are pushing for mission-driven volume (affordable, workforce, new supply); at the same time, they’re facing immense competition from banks, life cos, and debt funds—forcing ongoing innovation in products, delegation, and tech. Efficiency, execution certainty, and mission alignment are now decisive for securing agency debt on the best terms.
Valuation Reset Underway, but not Uniform
The market remains constrained by a buyer-seller valuation gap. However, mounting maturity-driven transactions—especially from closed-end fund exits and over-levered assets—are helping close the gap, providing critical “mark to market” references and reactivating deal flow. In the meantime, capital is laser-focused on durable cash flows, clear value-add plans, and assets where basis can be credibly reset.
Bottom Line
The 2026 MBA CREF takeaway: Liquidity is strong, risk is selective, and opportunity goes to those with capital, creativity, and execution speed. With maturities and capital flows in motion, the coming year will reward those who stay nimble and seize shifts in valuations, product development, and lender appetite.