U.S. ECONOMIC MACRO COMMENTARY & INSIGHTS
The Missing Dot
- The Federal Reserve held rates steady, but the June meeting delivered a meaningfully more hawkish signal than markets expected.
- Updated projections showed higher inflation, slower growth, and a committee increasingly open to the idea of a 25 bp hike by year end.
- The Fed also signaled a shift away from forward guidance, giving markets less of a roadmap and placing greater emphasis on incoming data.
Everyone will focus on the missing dot. The market sold off because of the nine that remained. Half the committee is now willing to discuss another rate hike this year, and that is a very different conversation than the one markets were having just a few months ago. Inflation forecasts moved higher, growth forecasts moved lower, and the Fed made clear that inflation remains the bigger concern.
6.17.2026 FOMC DOT PLOT
2026 Multifamily Investor Sentiment Survey
In December 2025, we surveyed over 250 of our trusted clients from various companies, with most holding senior-level titles, for our second annual Multifamily Investor Sentiment Survey. Our goal is to provide a comprehensive view of current market sentiments to our clients, and we plan to share our findings in our detailed report.
2026 Multifamily
Powerhouse Poll
In Berkadia’s Annual Multifamily Powerhouse Poll, we surveyed over 200 investment sales advisors and mortgage bankers to offer their unique perspectives on the state of the commercial real estate (CRE) industry.
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