Economy
From interest rates to inflation, understand the impact of macroeconomic trends on the real estate capital markets.
The Beyond Insights series aims to deliver timely economic and market-driven insights to better inform your commercial real estate investment decisions.
Markets
From local market rents to cap rates, catch up on the latest capital markets insights.
Learn moreU.S. ECONOMIC MACRO COMMENTARY & INSIGHTS
Forget Neutral. Are Financial Conditions Actually Restrictive?
- The Fed delivered the expected 25 bp hike and a dot plot that points toward additional tightening.
- Growth forecasts moved higher, unemployment forecasts moved lower, and inflation forecasts remained above target.
- The bigger takeaway may be that Warsh appears focused on financial conditions rather than traditional estimates of the neutral rate.
Markets came into September focused on whether the Fed would raise rates. By the end of the press conference, a more interesting question had emerged: does Warsh care where neutral is?
Chicago Fed Net financial conditions index
**negative values indicate financial conditions are looser than historical average
2026 Multifamily Investor Sentiment Survey
In December 2025, we surveyed over 250 of our trusted clients from various companies, with most holding senior-level titles, for our second annual Multifamily Investor Sentiment Survey. Our goal is to provide a comprehensive view of current market sentiments to our clients, and we plan to share our findings in our detailed report.
2026 Multifamily
Powerhouse Poll
In Berkadia’s Annual Multifamily Powerhouse Poll, we surveyed over 200 investment sales advisors and mortgage bankers to offer their unique perspectives on the state of the commercial real estate (CRE) industry.
Forget Neutral. Are Financial Conditions Actually Restrictive?
The Fed raised rates in September, but the more consequential message may be that Warsh is less interested in where policy sits relative to neutral than in whether financial conditions are actually doing the job. Markets came into September focused on whether the Fed would raise rates. By the end of the press conference, a…
The State of Borrowing Costs: Higher Rates, Tighter Spreads
Why Agency borrowers have been helped more by spread compression than Treasury policy There has been a lot of ink spilled recently about Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announcement that the Treasury Department will increase its buybacks of longer-dated securities. But let’s not conflate the Treasury and the Fed. The Treasury’s job is to finance the…
The Market Is Still Carrying Water for the Fed
Real yields are doing much of the tightening work and theyoffer the clearest read on the true cost of capital. The Federal Reserve may be holding its policy rate steady, but the cost of capital has not stood still. That distinction matters. Since last fall, the Fed has eased its overnight policy rate, yet longer-term…