Second annual mid-year multifamily pulse survey highlights investors are bearish on the near-term environment but remain bullish on multifamily as an asset class.
New York, New York – August 17, 2026 – Berkadia’s second annual Mid-Year Multifamily Pulse Survey reveals that investor confidence in multifamily remains strong, even as market volatility and tighter underwriting standards are making capital deployment more selective. Conducted in June 2026, the survey gathered responses from more than 100 participants, primarily Principals and Directors, with the majority representing private investor companies.
“Investors are bullish on multifamily and cautious on individual deals — that’s the nuance in today’s market,” said Ernie Katai, EVP – Head of Production at Berkadia. “Capital remains available, and long-term conviction is strong, but buyers are focused on opportunities with durable cash flow, realistic valuations, and strong downside protection. Transactions are still getting done, but the bar for execution is higher.”
The findings point to a market that remains active and constructive, even as investors apply greater discipline to individual deals. Near-term sentiment has become more cautious, but that caution has not translated into a retreat from multifamily. Instead, investors are sharpening their focus on opportunities with durable cash flow, realistic pricing, strong fundamentals, and compelling long-term value. The result is a market where capital remains available, but execution standards are higher and conviction matters more.
That disconnect between sentiment and activity is also reflected in transaction data. RCA reported a 5.7% decline in apartment transaction volume in the first half of 2026 compared with the first half of 2025, while Berkadia recorded a 16.8% increase in multifamily sales volume, reaching $5.6 billion in the first half of 2026 versus $4.8 billion a year earlier. Berkadia also increased launched multifamily deal count by 5.7%, from 442 deals in the first half of 2025 to 467 in the first half of 2026, underscoring that the market is still moving even if execution has become more challenging.
Long-term conviction remains firmly intact. 82% of respondents said they still plan to expand their portfolios, including 70% targeting moderate growth and 12% targeting aggressive growth. In addition, 83% expect multifamily investment conditions to improve by early 2028. The challenge, according to respondents, is not a lack of interest in the sector, but a shortage of opportunities that meet today’s more disciplined underwriting standards.
Underwriting assumptions remain notably defensive. Nearly half of respondents are underwriting exit cap rate expansion of 25 to 50 basis points over going-in cap rates, 55% have dispositions on hold due to current volatility, and 73% are assuming rent growth of no more than 2.5% over the next 18 months. These responses suggest investors are prioritizing capital preservation, income durability, and execution certainty over aggressive assumptions tied to rate cuts, cap rate compression, or a rapid rebound in fundamentals. In this environment, core and core-plus opportunities continue to attract the greatest interest from buyers seeking durable cash flow and lower execution risk.
Regionally, investor preference is shifting toward markets with more resilient fundamentals and better-aligned supply and demand dynamics. The Midwest emerged as the most preferred investment region for the second half of 2026, cited by 58% of respondents, followed by the Southeast at 52% and the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic at 46%. The results reinforce a broader survey theme: investors remain interested in growth, but are prioritizing durability, downside protection, and execution certainty when deciding where to deploy capital.
Looking ahead, respondents remain constructive on multifamily’s long-term outlook, supported by easing supply pressures, continued renter demand, and affordability challenges in the for-sale housing market. While near-term volatility and soft operating fundamentals continue to weigh on transaction activity, the survey suggests investors are not stepping away from multifamily — they are simply being far more selective about which deals merit conviction.
Click here to view the 2026 Mid-Year Multifamily Pulse Survey.
Highlights from the survey include:
- Investors remain bullish on multifamily but cautious on individual deals: The survey’s clearest takeaway is that conviction in the asset class remains strong, even as investors apply more discipline and selectivity at the deal level.
- The market is not suffering from a lack of interest, but from a lack of qualifying opportunities: Capital remains available, but many investors say the biggest challenge is finding deals that satisfy current underwriting standards.
- Near-term sentiment is weaker but not retreating: A combined 61% of respondents described their outlook for the second half of 2026 as negative or somewhat negative, and 52% said the first half performed worse than expected.
- Long-term conviction remains strong: Despite near-term caution, 82% of respondents still plan to expand their portfolios, and 83% expect market conditions to improve by early 2028.
- Underwriting remains disciplined and defensive: Nearly half of respondents are underwriting exit cap rate expansion of 25 to 50 basis points, 55% have dispositions on hold, and 73% are assuming rent growth of no more than 2.5% over the next 18 months.
- Execution standards have risen materially: Transactions are still getting done, but mostly for assets with strong fundamentals, durable cash flow, realistic pricing, and compelling long-term value propositions.
- Midwest leads regional preference: Investors increasingly favor markets where supply and demand are better aligned, operating performance is steadier, and downside protection is more achievable, with the Midwest ranking first, followed by the Southeast and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic.
- Core and core-plus strategies continue to stand out: In a more defensive environment, investors are gravitating toward opportunities that offer durable cash flow and lower execution risk.